Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 21% or more?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

21¢ → 98.3¢

+367% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,312

Combined PnL+$2.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$23.1

Total Shares464

Combined PnL-$178.99

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

587h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
thanksforplayin	Yesavg 18.5¢	$333.88	$1.8K	+$1.4K	56% 718-566 (1284)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 26¢	$192.09	$727.12	+$538.59	43% 15-20 (35)
Chungvicular	Yesavg 10.8¢	$46.06	$419.83	+$373.77	47% 91-102 (193)
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 13.9¢	$22.09	$155.98	+$133.9	36% 101-179 (280)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 98.7¢	$82.61	$82.22	-$0.35	50% 1759-1780 (3539)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 17.3¢	$7.45	$42.28	+$34.83	17% 4504-22051 (26555)
DO donthackme<$100	Yes	$48.8	$20.94	+$18.21	68% 13211-6218 (19429)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$17.57	$17.69	+$0.12	47% 4080-4639 (8719)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$17.52	$17.52	+$16.15	67% 27570-13865 (41435)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 63.8¢	$493.06	$16.07	+$134.36	34% 19370-36924 (56294)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 79.5¢	$221.49	$4.9	-$216.59	53% 8609-7685 (16294)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$81.13	$1.75	-$78.75	65% 622-342 (964)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$18.41	$0.38	-$18.01	40% 6562-9840 (16402)

thanksforplayin

Yes

Invested

$333.88

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

56%

718-566 (1284)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$192.09

Value

$727.12

PnL

+$538.59

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

Chungvicular

Yes

Invested

$46.06

Value

$419.83

PnL

+$373.77

Record

47%

91-102 (193)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$22.09

Value

$155.98

PnL

+$133.9

Record

36%

101-179 (280)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.61

Value

$82.22

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

1759-1780 (3539)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.45

Value

$42.28

PnL

+$34.83

Record

17%

4504-22051 (26555)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.8

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$18.21

Record

68%

13211-6218 (19429)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.57

Value

$17.69

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

4080-4639 (8719)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.52

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$16.15

Record

67%

27570-13865 (41435)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$493.06

Value

$16.07

PnL

+$134.36

Record

34%

19370-36924 (56294)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$221.49

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$216.59

Record

53%

8609-7685 (16294)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Invested

$81.13

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$78.75

Record

65%

622-342 (964)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$18.41

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$18.01

Record

40%

6562-9840 (16402)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

587h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.