Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-28 House election by 18%-21%?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $979 held · ended Nov 4

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$979.06

Combined PnL

$494

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 78.3¢

-14% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$529.36

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL+$576.18

No12 traders

Total Value$449.7

Total Shares583

Combined PnL-$82.18

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$89.32	$290.49	+$206.01	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 94.9¢	$199.25	$207.69	+$8.44	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$16.5	$185.5	+$204.75	46% 79-91 (170)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$72.99	$50.32	-$22.67	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$70.94	$50.06	-$20.88	53% 29253-26162 (55415)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$58.5	$44.03	-$14.47	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$171.97	$41.99	+$158.09	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$50.03	$37.98	-$12.05	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$26.12	$16.98	-$9.14	31% 3472-7762 (11234)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$4.05	$11.37	+$7.32	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$10.83	$11.07	+$0.23	39% 1054-1655 (2709)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$10.82	$8.04	-$2.78	40% 2175-3220 (5395)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$10.74	$8.01	-$2.73	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$10.7	$7.98	-$2.72	47% 1688-1871 (3559)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$6.14	$4.4	-$1.73	47% 2137-2439 (4576)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$4.84	$3.15	-$1.69	32% 2511-5383 (7894)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$89.32

Value

$290.49

PnL

+$206.01

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$199.25

Value

$207.69

PnL

+$8.44

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$185.5

PnL

+$204.75

Record

46%

79-91 (170)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$72.99

Value

$50.32

PnL

-$22.67

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$70.94

Value

$50.06

PnL

-$20.88

Record

53%

29253-26162 (55415)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$58.5

Value

$44.03

PnL

-$14.47

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$171.97

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$158.09

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$50.03

Value

$37.98

PnL

-$12.05

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$26.12

Value

$16.98

PnL

-$9.14

Record

31%

3472-7762 (11234)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$11.37

PnL

+$7.32

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.83

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$0.23

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.82

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$2.78

Record

40%

2175-3220 (5395)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$2.73

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$2.72

Record

47%

1688-1871 (3559)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1.73

Record

47%

2137-2439 (4576)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.69

Record

32%

2511-5383 (7894)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.0%

78.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.