Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 3%-6%?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$7.75

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 85¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$976.93

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL-$30.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$27.48

Total Shares180

Combined PnL+$38.26

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 87.5¢	$874.52	$777.24	-$24.28	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$303.76	$297.54	+$20.22	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.4¢	$215.25	$204.45	-$21.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.1¢	$62.2	$93.09	+$41.44
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 87.9¢	$214.53	$122.26	-$4.22	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
Lucerys	Noavg 87.4¢	$295.26	$71.49	-$1.82	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 7.5¢	$488.21	$24.46	+$35.84	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 87.8¢	$32.49	$5.94	-$0.2	41% 6791-9646 (16437)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.6	$3.02	+$2.42	67% 4191-2055 (6246)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$874.52

Value

$777.24

PnL

-$24.28

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$303.76

Value

$297.54

PnL

+$20.22

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Both legs:

No$215.2589.4¢-$21.22

Yes$62.210.1¢+$41.44

qwen300.fund

Invested

$214.53

Value

$122.26

PnL

-$4.22

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

Lucerys

Invested

$295.26

Value

$71.49

PnL

-$1.82

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$488.21

Value

$24.46

PnL

+$35.84

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$32.49

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

6791-9646 (16437)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$2.42

Record

67%

4191-2055 (6246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.5%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.