Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 30%-35%?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $857 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$857.28

Combined PnL

$134.2

Smart Money Entry

17.4¢ → 0.7¢

-96% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$292.56

Total Shares813

Combined PnL+$165.61

No5 traders

Total Value$127.73

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$31.41

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$665.81	$436.98	+$83.87	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.8¢	$261.26	$220.54	-$121.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$110.17	$216.44	+$205.31
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$169.5	$171.62	+$95.06	— 7-9 (16)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$95.01	$71.79	-$7.48	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$54.97	$46	+$10.37	45% 2849-3477 (6326)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$9.14	$45	+$35.52	59% 3768-2614 (6382)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.73	$38.4	-$21.33	54% 1650-1409 (3059)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.41	$19.63	+$19.22	84% 21-4 (25)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$12.8	$12.8	-$0	53% 29676-26572 (56248)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$4.87	$10.32	+$5.45	55% 5061-4133 (9194)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.95	$3.2	-$1.75	47% 8454-9632 (18086)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.38	$1.54	-$0.84	39% 5753-8937 (14690)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$665.81

Value

$436.98

PnL

+$83.87

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

No$261.2675.8¢-$121.44

Yes$110.1718.3¢+$205.31

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$169.5

Value

$171.62

PnL

+$95.06

Record

—

7-9 (16)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$95.01

Value

$71.79

PnL

-$7.48

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.97

Value

$46

PnL

+$10.37

Record

45%

2849-3477 (6326)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.14

Value

$45

PnL

+$35.52

Record

59%

3768-2614 (6382)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$59.73

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$21.33

Record

54%

1650-1409 (3059)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$19.63

PnL

+$19.22

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$12.8

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

29676-26572 (56248)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.87

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$5.45

Record

55%

5061-4133 (9194)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$1.75

Record

47%

8454-9632 (18086)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.84

Record

39%

5753-8937 (14690)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5559.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

5659.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.