Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-03 House election?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 5.8¢ · $42 held · ended Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$41.58

Combined PnL

-$1.61

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$32.93

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$2.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.65

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$0.74

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
probability<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$35.28	$32.93	-$2.35	42% 1530-2142 (3672)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$7.53	$7.08	-$0.45	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.2	$1.39	+$1.19	84% 21-4 (25)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.18	+$0	18% 4414-20716 (25130)

probability<$100

Invested

$35.28

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$2.35

Record

42%

1530-2142 (3672)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.53

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$0.45

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$1.19

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.1%

5.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1307.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

1407.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.