Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 14 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Attorney General election?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 1.6¢ · $791 held · ended Nov 3

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$791.35

Combined PnL

$43.5

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 1.6¢

-97% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$598.76

Total Shares610

Combined PnL+$405.89

No14 traders

Total Value$192.58

Total Shares969

Combined PnL-$362.39

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+76 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Yesavg 31.6¢	$192.87	$598.76	+$405.89	52% 924-868 (1792)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 71¢	$643.82	$114.62	-$229.82	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$85.25	$41.76	-$43.48	50% 1703-1693 (3396)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$88.26	$30.03	-$58.23	25% 327-975 (1302)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1.01	$2.33	+$1.32	79% 12035-3234 (15269)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 11.7¢	$9.36	$1.24	-$8.12	60% 11537-7729 (19266)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$23.71	$0.58	-$23.14	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 8.3¢	$1.33	$0.37	-$0.96	73% 13523-5052 (18575)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.35	+$0.2	38% 977-1591 (2568)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.35	+$0.2	39% 989-1579 (2568)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$0.63	$0.28	-$0.35	55% 4354-3545 (7899)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.24	$0.28	+$0.04	30% 2167-5020 (7187)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$0.29	$0.19	-$0.1	53% 8026-7128 (15154)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.12	+$0.02	47% 2072-2346 (4418)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.04	$0.09	+$0.05	40% 2090-3134 (5224)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Yes

Invested

$192.87

Value

$598.76

PnL

+$405.89

Record

52%

924-868 (1792)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$643.82

Value

$114.62

PnL

-$229.82

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$85.25

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$43.48

Record

50%

1703-1693 (3396)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$88.26

Value

$30.03

PnL

-$58.23

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$1.01

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$1.32

Record

79%

12035-3234 (15269)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$8.12

Record

60%

11537-7729 (19266)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$23.71

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$23.14

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.96

Record

73%

13523-5052 (18575)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

989-1579 (2568)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

4354-3545 (7899)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.04

Record

30%

2167-5020 (7187)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

8026-7128 (15154)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2072-2346 (4418)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.05

Record

40%

2090-3134 (5224)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+76 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3674.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

3774.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.