Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$240.08
-$8.9
99.6¢ → 97.7¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $84.32 | $82.92 | -$1.4 | 61% 13978-8791 (22769) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $78.04 | -$1.88 | 50% 7869-7957 (15826) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.08 | $19.61 | -$0.47 | 79% 10651-2799 (13450) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $18.34 | $18.03 | -$0.31 | 55% 26056-21461 (47517) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $16.96 | $16.58 | -$0.37 | 42% 6041-8253 (14294) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.76 | -$0.23 | 33% 3075-6370 (9445) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.76 | -$0.23 | 49% 9109-9642 (18751) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $7.79 | $4.42 | -$3.36 | 35% 16978-31455 (48433) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.59 | $0.97 | -$0.62 | 18% 4067-19070 (23137) |
Invested
$84.32
Value
$82.92
PnL
-$1.4
Record
61%
13978-8791 (22769)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$78.04
PnL
-$1.88
Record
50%
7869-7957 (15826)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$20.08
Value
$19.61
PnL
-$0.47
Record
79%
10651-2799 (13450)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.34
Value
$18.03
PnL
-$0.31
Record
55%
26056-21461 (47517)
Invested
$16.96
Value
$16.58
PnL
-$0.37
Record
42%
6041-8253 (14294)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.23
Record
33%
3075-6370 (9445)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
9109-9642 (18751)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$4.42
PnL
-$3.36
Record
35%
16978-31455 (48433)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$1.59
Value
$0.97
PnL
-$0.62
Record
18%
4067-19070 (23137)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.