Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 97.4¢

+110% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,722

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No2 traders

Total Value$3.47

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$46.49

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953	Yesavg 40¢	$730.87	$1.8K	+$1.0K	50% 1148-1162 (2310)
SI singularityman	Yesavg 20.4¢	$154.62	$738.84	+$591.3	43% 158-209 (367)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl	Yesavg 57¢	$372.07	$566.93	+$239.01	32% 8-17 (25)
AN anciano	Yesavg 99¢	$451.46	$444.04	-$5.86	54% 1415-1224 (2639)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 59.7¢	$76.23	$61.93	+$27.75	40% 6503-9752 (16255)
SP SpringlyFawl<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	27% 2504-6860 (9364)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.46	$8.63	+$5.17	77% 12683-3867 (16550)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$0.31	$3.29	+$2.97	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$59.96	$2.94	+$45.07	45% 2956-3648 (6604)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$23.83	$0.53	+$1.42	19% 2850-12163 (15013)

Albert 1953

Yes

Invested

$730.87

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

1148-1162 (2310)

singularityman

Yes

Invested

$154.62

Value

$738.84

PnL

+$591.3

Record

43%

158-209 (367)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl

Yes

Invested

$372.07

Value

$566.93

PnL

+$239.01

Record

32%

8-17 (25)

anciano

Yes

Invested

$451.46

Value

$444.04

PnL

-$5.86

Record

54%

1415-1224 (2639)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.23

Value

$61.93

PnL

+$27.75

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

SpringlyFawl<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

27%

2504-6860 (9364)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$5.17

Record

77%

12683-3867 (16550)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$2.97

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$59.96

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$45.07

Record

45%

2956-3648 (6604)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$23.83

Value

$0.53

PnL

+$1.42

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.