Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.0K
-$104.19
82.1¢ → 69.2¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 82.9¢ | $532.65 | $520.07 | -$10.41 | 27% 281-776 (1057) |
 balthazar | Noavg 80.8¢ | $365.11 | $397.02 | +$31.91 | 61% 20689-13109 (33798) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $119.7 | $62.71 | -$56.99 | — 2-1 (3) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 85.4¢ | $224.9 | $62.12 | -$66.45 | 36% 14860-26974 (41834) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $9.45 | $3.81 | -$2.25 | 53% 6327-5543 (11870) |
IstarothInvested
$532.65
Value
$520.07
PnL
-$10.41
Record
27%
281-776 (1057)
balthazarInvested
$365.11
Value
$397.02
PnL
+$31.91
Record
61%
20689-13109 (33798)
Invested
$119.7
Value
$62.71
PnL
-$56.99
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$224.9
Value
$62.12
PnL
-$66.45
Record
36%
14860-26974 (41834)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$2.25
Record
53%
6327-5543 (11870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.