Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 9%-12%?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $477 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$477.48

Combined PnL

-$226.48

Smart Money Entry

6.9¢ → 0.9¢

-87% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$422.82

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$14.79

Yes4 traders

Total Value$54.66

Total Shares2,803

Combined PnL-$241.26

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

218h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.3¢	$130.61	$129.76	-$0.13	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
Haradwaith	No	$127.58	$127.58	+$0	42% 5366-7297 (12663)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 83.9¢	$104.54	$117.46	+$12.91	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$371.61	$41.09	-$202.83	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.98	$24.94	-$0.04	39% 1048-1650 (2698)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$11.51	$12.09	+$0.59	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$9.54	$10.99	+$1.45	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$71.31	$7.46	-$34.85	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$6.6	$4.29	-$3.21	62% 16-10 (26)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.19	$1.83	-$0.36	— 6-7 (13)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$130.61

Value

$129.76

PnL

-$0.13

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Haradwaith

Invested

$127.58

Value

$127.58

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

5366-7297 (12663)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$104.54

Value

$117.46

PnL

+$12.91

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$371.61

Value

$41.09

PnL

-$202.83

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

39%

1048-1650 (2698)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.51

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$0.59

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.54

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$1.45

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.31

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$34.85

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$3.21

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.36

Record

—

6-7 (13)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

218h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4964.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

5064.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.