Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 3%-6%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 28¢ · $995 held · ends Nov 4

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$994.97

Combined PnL

$110.42

Smart Money Entry

23.9¢ → 28¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$596.53

Total Shares1,988

Combined PnL+$110.25

No1 trader

Total Value$23.47

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 72¢	$378.26	$374.96	-$0.11	27% 281-769 (1050)
└ No leg	Noavg 72¢	$269.97	$262.48	-$7.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$104.99	$112.49	+$7.4
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$274.38	$342.97	+$62.88	62% 45-28 (73)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$163.94	$184.58	+$20.64	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$32.17	$59.14	+$25.98	— 1-0 (1)
IM immanuelcan<$100	Noavg 70¢	$23.47	$23.47	+$0.17	53% 903-786 (1689)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$13.04	$9.84	+$0.75	57% 13137-10012 (23149)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$378.26

Value

$374.96

PnL

-$0.11

Record

27%

281-769 (1050)

Both legs:

Invested

$274.38

Value

$342.97

PnL

+$62.88

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.94

Value

$184.58

PnL

+$20.64

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.17

Value

$59.14

PnL

+$25.98

Record

—

1-0 (1)

immanuelcan<$100

Invested

$23.47

Value

$23.47

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

903-786 (1689)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.04

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.75

Record

57%

13137-10012 (23149)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.8%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$235.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

335.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.