Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 0%-3%?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 97.4¢

+30% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,694

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$139.85

Total Shares1,656

Combined PnL-$152

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 75.8¢	$4.1K	$5.2K	+$1.2K	46% 2751-3295 (6046)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 77.1¢	$671.43	$536.18	+$14.29	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 51¢	$164.79	$255.26	+$161.38	42% 6915-9707 (16622)
Haradwaith	Noavg 78¢	$50.75	$146.02	-$34.16	42% 5338-7268 (12606)
LA lava-lavaCTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$275.24	$136.5	-$138.75	43% 562-758 (1320)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 95.5¢	$124.01	$125.73	+$1.72	60% 11747-7966 (19713)
balthazar	Noavg 40.5¢	$54.83	$122.78	+$67.95	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 76¢	$28.88	$36.78	+$7.9	49% 8748-9254 (18002)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.93	$24.69	-$0.24	39% 1052-1657 (2709)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$26.02	$23.74	+$3.76	56% 441-348 (789)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$22.38	$17.09	+$3.32	58% 19331-14228 (33559)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$16.61	$3.36	-$13.25	53% 9914-8629 (18543)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$4,052.42

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

2751-3295 (6046)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$671.43

Value

$536.18

PnL

+$14.29

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

godblessme2026

Invested

$164.79

Value

$255.26

PnL

+$161.38

Record

42%

6915-9707 (16622)

Haradwaith

Invested

$50.75

Value

$146.02

PnL

-$34.16

Record

42%

5338-7268 (12606)

lava-lavaCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.24

Value

$136.5

PnL

-$138.75

Record

43%

562-758 (1320)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$124.01

Value

$125.73

PnL

+$1.72

Record

60%

11747-7966 (19713)

balthazar

Invested

$54.83

Value

$122.78

PnL

+$67.95

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$36.78

PnL

+$7.9

Record

49%

8748-9254 (18002)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$24.93

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

1052-1657 (2709)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$26.02

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$3.76

Record

56%

441-348 (789)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$22.38

Value

$17.09

PnL

+$3.32

Record

58%

19331-14228 (33559)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.61

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$13.25

Record

53%

9914-8629 (18543)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.