Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $273 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$272.91
-$164.69
86.2¢ → 61¢
-29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-38 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 86.6¢ | $503.33 | $104.1 | -$191.48 | 35% 18009-33702 (51711) |
 LornaPredictsARB<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $61.25 | $69 | +$7.75 | 20% 2564-10155 (12719) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.5¢ | $52.22 | $37.08 | -$15.13 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $9.04 | $31.92 | +$22.88 | |
 G.HchenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $37.63 | $54.28 | +$16.65 | — 7-7 (14) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $9.84 | $26.38 | +$16.53 | — 3-7 (10) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $25.24 | $18.85 | -$6.39 | 42% 6915-9707 (16622) |
Invested
$503.33
Value
$104.1
PnL
-$191.48
Record
35%
18009-33702 (51711)
LornaPredictsARB<$100Invested
$61.25
Value
$69
PnL
+$7.75
Record
20%
2564-10155 (12719)
Both legs:
G.HchenCTR<$100Invested
$37.63
Value
$54.28
PnL
+$16.65
Record
—
7-7 (14)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$26.38
PnL
+$16.53
Record
—
3-7 (10)
Invested
$25.24
Value
$18.85
PnL
-$6.39
Record
42%
6915-9707 (16622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.