Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 51¢ · $924 held · ended Nov 4

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$923.6

Combined PnL

$342.2

Smart Money Entry

14.9¢ → 50.7¢

+239% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$539.3

Total Shares824

Combined PnL+$366.82

No2 traders

Total Value$22.25

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$24.62

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$597.17	$296.8	-$23.63	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.6¢	$48.02	$164.58	+$196.86
└ No leg	Noavg 82.1¢	$273.28	$132.22	-$220.5
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 13.4¢	$42.23	$217.09	+$155.27	46% 2751-3295 (6046)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 13.7¢	$63.25	$143.62	+$80.37	59% 3704-2571 (6275)
thanksforplayin	Yesavg 18.6¢	$153.86	$109.47	+$80.76	56% 441-348 (789)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$269.93	$65.24	-$1.66	15% 458-2662 (3120)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.4¢	$11.35	$39.34	+$93.19
└ No leg	Noavg 83.2¢	$54.29	$25.9	-$94.85
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$11.5	$42.81	+$31.32	— 3-7 (10)
G.Hchen<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$7.22	$26.31	+$19.09	— 7-7 (14)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$37.01	$17.56	-$19.44	40% 2149-3186 (5335)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$9.86	$4.68	-$5.18	42% 6915-9707 (16622)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$597.17

Value

$296.8

PnL

-$23.63

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

Both legs:

Yes$48.0217.6¢+$196.86

No$273.2882.1¢-$220.5

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$42.23

Value

$217.09

PnL

+$155.27

Record

46%

2751-3295 (6046)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$63.25

Value

$143.62

PnL

+$80.37

Record

59%

3704-2571 (6275)

thanksforplayin

Yes

Invested

$153.86

Value

$109.47

PnL

+$80.76

Record

56%

441-348 (789)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$269.93

Value

$65.24

PnL

-$1.66

Record

15%

458-2662 (3120)

Both legs:

Yes$11.3517.4¢+$93.19

No$54.2983.2¢-$94.85

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.5

Value

$42.81

PnL

+$31.32

Record

—

3-7 (10)

G.Hchen<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.22

Value

$26.31

PnL

+$19.09

Record

—

7-7 (14)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$37.01

Value

$17.56

PnL

-$19.44

Record

40%

2149-3186 (5335)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$5.18

Record

42%

6915-9707 (16622)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.