Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 23¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$309.28

Smart Money Entry

24.2¢ → 22.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$649.24

Total Shares698

Combined PnL+$73.31

Yes2 traders

Total Value$231.51

Total Shares2,511

Combined PnL+$235.97

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$1.5K	$852.47	+$55.74	35% 18009-33702 (51711)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.2¢	$633.08	$652.77	-$133.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$186.75	$199.7	+$189.25
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 71¢	$136.99	$276.16	-$5.64	71% 7086-2836 (9922)
Istaroth	Noavg 73.3¢	$219.09	$276.08	+$58.48	15% 458-2662 (3120)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 24.4¢	$350.19	$209.43	+$282.49	46% 2751-3295 (6046)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$36.91	$45.81	+$8.89	53% 29106-25981 (55087)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 71¢	$28.4	$37.2	+$8.8	42% 6915-9707 (16622)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$116.59	$22.08	-$46.51	59% 3704-2571 (6275)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$8.82	$10.97	+$2.15	49% 8748-9254 (18002)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$2.39	$3.01	+$0.62	39% 1052-1657 (2709)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,534.59

Value

$852.47

PnL

+$55.74

Record

35%

18009-33702 (51711)

Both legs:

No$633.0875.2¢-$133.51

Yes$186.7521¢+$189.25

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$136.99

Value

$276.16

PnL

-$5.64

Record

71%

7086-2836 (9922)

Istaroth

Invested

$219.09

Value

$276.08

PnL

+$58.48

Record

15%

458-2662 (3120)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$350.19

Value

$209.43

PnL

+$282.49

Record

46%

2751-3295 (6046)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$36.91

Value

$45.81

PnL

+$8.89

Record

53%

29106-25981 (55087)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$28.4

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$8.8

Record

42%

6915-9707 (16622)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.59

Value

$22.08

PnL

-$46.51

Record

59%

3704-2571 (6275)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$2.15

Record

49%

8748-9254 (18002)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$0.62

Record

39%

1052-1657 (2709)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.2%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$312.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

412.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.