Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Attorney General election?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 3

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$64.91

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 71.6¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$726.46

Total Shares798

Combined PnL-$111.56

No10 traders

Total Value$214.88

Total Shares759

Combined PnL+$46.64

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
clazzy1	Yesavg 88.2¢	$640.57	$660.94	-$149.27	64% 484-268 (752)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Noavg 15.4¢	$74.87	$155.43	+$80.56	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$583.24	$115.84	-$65.66	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.7¢	$22.07	$88.58	+$83.14
└ No leg	Noavg 68.2¢	$154.93	$27.26	-$148.8
AB ABC12345654321<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$37.8	$65.52	+$37.72	49% 1867-1968 (3835)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$24.24	$24.73	+$0.71	15% 459-2699 (3158)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 12.5¢	$10.86	$10.44	-$0.42	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$86.27	$7.68	-$11.41	27% 453-1221 (1674)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.54	$7.67	-$2.21	41% 1179-1673 (2852)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 47.9¢	$19.16	$4.8	-$14.36	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.97	$1.82	-$0.15	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$6.55	$1.08	-$5.47	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.93	$0.62	-$0.31	47% 2130-2428 (4558)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.92	$0.61	-$0.31	39% 1066-1669 (2735)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$640.57

Value

$660.94

PnL

-$149.27

Record

64%

484-268 (752)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Invested

$74.87

Value

$155.43

PnL

+$80.56

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$583.24

Value

$115.84

PnL

-$65.66

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

Yes$22.0722.7¢+$83.14

No$154.9368.2¢-$148.8

ABC12345654321<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.8

Value

$65.52

PnL

+$37.72

Record

49%

1867-1968 (3835)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$24.24

Value

$24.73

PnL

+$0.71

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$10.86

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$86.27

Value

$7.68

PnL

-$11.41

Record

27%

453-1221 (1674)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.54

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$2.21

Record

41%

1179-1673 (2852)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$19.16

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$14.36

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$0.15

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$6.55

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$5.47

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

2130-2428 (4558)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.31

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 12 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.4%

71.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.