Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-13 House election by 15%-20%?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.7¢ · $34 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$33.68

Combined PnL

-$44.33

Smart Money Entry

21¢ → 2.7¢

-87% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$33.68

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL-$44.33

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$47.29	$16.33	-$30.96	34% 19360-36909 (56269)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.1¢	$45.24	$4.13	+$17.01	45% 2998-3691 (6689)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$13.78	$3.96	-$9.05	47% 4077-4633 (8710)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yes	$3.39	$3.39	+$7.08	82% 23-5 (28)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$20.59	$3.07	-$17.52	43% 15-20 (35)
HolyMoses7CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.09	$1.61	-$3.48	50% 1758-1780 (3538)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$8.89	$1.17	-$7.41	56% 714-566 (1280)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$47.29

Value

$16.33

PnL

-$30.96

Record

34%

19360-36909 (56269)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.24

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$17.01

Record

45%

2998-3691 (6689)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.78

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$9.05

Record

47%

4077-4633 (8710)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$7.08

Record

82%

23-5 (28)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.59

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$17.52

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

HolyMoses7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.09

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$3.48

Record

50%

1758-1780 (3538)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$7.41

Record

56%

714-566 (1280)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2502.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

2602.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.