Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 35%-40%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $662 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$662.36
-$12.37
76.7¢ → 85¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 75.4¢ | $596.49 | $413.28 | -$13.21 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 80.2¢ | $184.1 | $177.6 | -$3 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.4¢ | $65.15 | $53.89 | +$0.24 | — 1-0 (1) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $13.99 | $17.59 | +$3.6 | 62% 2183-1323 (3506) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.