Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-02 House election by 15%-20%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $632 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$632
$194.22
71.7¢ → 85.5¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 76.7¢ | $528.21 | $249.41 | +$22.14 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 fkpa | Noavg 61.3¢ | $390.46 | $203.03 | +$150.33 | — 1-0 (1) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $50.03 | $50.36 | +$0.33 | 55% 4929-3989 (8918) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $27.73 | $49.58 | +$21.86 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $50.3 | $48.96 | -$0.25 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $30.8 | $30.6 | -$0.2 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
Invested
$528.21
Value
$249.41
PnL
+$22.14
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
fkpaInvested
$390.46
Value
$203.03
PnL
+$150.33
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Anjun<$100Invested
$50.03
Value
$50.36
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
4929-3989 (8918)
Invested
$27.73
Value
$49.58
PnL
+$21.86
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.3
Value
$48.96
PnL
-$0.25
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
balthazar<$100Invested
$30.8
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$0.2
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.