Will an Independent Candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 0%-3%?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 98¢ · $374 held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$373.61

Combined PnL

-$87.18

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 98.4¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$268.26

Total Shares269

Combined PnL+$1.53

Yes4 traders

Total Value$105.35

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL-$88.71

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 87.6¢	$205.31	$200	-$3.41	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$230.08	$88.96	-$34.55	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 87¢	$47.87	$50.97	+$3.1	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
Car<$100	Noavg 87¢	$15.44	$17.28	+$1.84	67% 4218-2061 (6279)
FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$39.78	$8.11	-$28.92	50% 541-545 (1086)
RA RailcoolCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$41.8	$6.27	-$35.53	53% 103-91 (194)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.56	$2.01	+$10.28	53% 29258-26174 (55432)

Istaroth

Invested

$205.31

Value

$200

PnL

-$3.41

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$230.08

Value

$88.96

PnL

-$34.55

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$47.87

Value

$50.97

PnL

+$3.1

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Car<$100

Invested

$15.44

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$1.84

Record

67%

4218-2061 (6279)

FaroeseNationalistCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.78

Value

$8.11

PnL

-$28.92

Record

50%

541-545 (1086)

RailcoolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.8

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$35.53

Record

53%

103-91 (194)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$10.28

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.