Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-04 House election by 60% or more?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 20¢ · $515 held · ended Nov 4

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$514.97

Combined PnL

$30.46

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 19.8¢

-54% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$295.69

Total Shares556

Combined PnL+$18.02

Yes3 traders

Total Value$73.82

Total Shares86

Combined PnL+$12.44

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Noavg 73.2¢	$222.98	$212.81	-$4.58	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$427.44	$145.46	-$89.17	35% 18181-34050 (52231)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$35.25	$100.63	+$108.13
└ No leg	Noavg 82.4¢	$179.7	$44.83	-$197.29
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Noavg 27.1¢	$60.46	$54.69	+$28.89	45% 2827-3406 (6233)
thanksforplayin<$100	Yesavg 35.7¢	$24.4	$30.49	+$4.68	56% 453-353 (806)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$15.3	$21.66	+$6.36	— 7-7 (14)
HolyMoses7<$100	Yesavg 80.7¢	$20.27	$21.66	+$1.4	54% 1638-1406 (3044)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$20.68	$11.73	-$8.95	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$0.8	$7.82	+$7.02	53% 22650-19900 (42550)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$10.29	$3.6	-$6.69	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 9.1¢	$1.44	$3.11	+$1.66	59% 11849-8194 (20043)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 5.3¢	$0.27	$0.98	+$0.71	32% 2531-5407 (7938)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 12.4¢	$0.99	$0.96	-$0.03	77% 12539-3686 (16225)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$222.98

Value

$212.81

PnL

-$4.58

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$427.44

Value

$145.46

PnL

-$89.17

Record

35%

18181-34050 (52231)

Both legs:

Yes$35.2527.8¢+$108.13

No$179.782.4¢-$197.29

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Invested

$60.46

Value

$54.69

PnL

+$28.89

Record

45%

2827-3406 (6233)

thanksforplayin<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.4

Value

$30.49

PnL

+$4.68

Record

56%

453-353 (806)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.3

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$6.36

Record

—

7-7 (14)

HolyMoses7<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.27

Value

$21.66

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

1638-1406 (3044)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$11.73

PnL

-$8.95

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$7.02

Record

53%

22650-19900 (42550)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$6.69

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$1.66

Record

59%

11849-8194 (20043)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.71

Record

32%

2531-5407 (7938)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.03

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.5%

19.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$366.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

466.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.