Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 40%-45%?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$211.29

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 62.2¢

-12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$731.5

Total Shares847

Combined PnL+$35.9

Yes1 trader

Total Value$334.45

Total Shares763

Combined PnL+$175.39

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 71.4¢	$882.25	$673.6	+$46.75	36% 14901-27010 (41911)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$234.82	$334.45	+$175.39	— 2-1 (3)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$126.35	$98.1	-$5.55	25% 282-835 (1117)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.3¢	$54.29	$61.35	+$7.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.5¢	$44.63	$36.75	-$12.62
fkpa<$100	Noavg 66.7¢	$68.75	$57.9	-$10.86	— 1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$882.25

Value

$673.6

PnL

+$46.75

Record

36%

14901-27010 (41911)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$234.82

Value

$334.45

PnL

+$175.39

Record

—

2-1 (3)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$126.35

Value

$98.1

PnL

-$5.55

Record

25%

282-835 (1117)

Both legs:

No$54.2955.3¢+$7.06

Yes$44.6345.5¢-$12.62

fkpa<$100

Invested

$68.75

Value

$57.9

PnL

-$10.86

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.1%

62.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.