Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-02 House election by 6% or more?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $53 held · ends Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$53.42

Combined PnL

$8.54

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$32.21

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$4.99

Yes3 traders

Total Value$20.96

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$3.55

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$12.68	$18.33	+$5.65	55% 26056-21461 (47517)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$45.72	$12.99	+$7.27	35% 16978-31455 (48433)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$9.78	$9.17	-$0.62	52% 3214-2934 (6148)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$11.16	$7.52	-$3.64	—
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$4.76	$4.72	-$0.04	79% 10651-2799 (13450)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$0.54	$0.46	-$0.08	21% 2286-8721 (11007)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.68

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$5.65

Record

55%

26056-21461 (47517)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.72

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$7.27

Record

35%

16978-31455 (48433)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.62

Record

52%

3214-2934 (6148)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.16

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$3.64

Record

—

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

79%

10651-2799 (13450)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$0.08

Record

21%

2286-8721 (11007)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.