Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 45%-50%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$120.97
$11.09
Research grade
AvoidYes at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $253.72 | $108.33 | +$13.38 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.5¢ | $75.16 | $80.53 | -$29.75 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $25.15 | $27.8 | +$43.13 | |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $1.55 | $12.64 | +$11.09 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.