Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 0%-35%?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $102 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$101.89
$4.94
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $47.68 | -$2.28 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $35.51 | $41.97 | +$6.46 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $9.54 | +$1.44 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $3.37 | $2.69 | -$0.68 | 18% 4284-20059 (24343) |
Invested
$49.95
Value
$47.68
PnL
-$2.28
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$35.51
Value
$41.97
PnL
+$6.46
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$9.54
PnL
+$1.44
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$3.37
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$0.68
Record
18%
4284-20059 (24343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.