Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.5% or more?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $288 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$287.77
-$23.09
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.59 | -$0.34 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.59 | -$0.34 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 26% 118-337 (455) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $59.61 | $59.67 | +$0.06 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $44.09 | $18.34 | -$13.23 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $45.23 | $0.4 | -$6.4 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.49 | $0.12 | -$1.38 | — 9-0 (9) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.22 | $0.09 | -$1.12 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $0.38 | $0.03 | -$0.35 | 37% 3468-5985 (9453) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.59
PnL
-$0.34
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.59
PnL
-$0.34
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
118-337 (455)
Invested
$59.61
Value
$59.67
PnL
+$0.06
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
Invested
$44.09
Value
$18.34
PnL
-$13.23
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$45.23
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$6.4
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.38
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.12
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.35
Record
37%
3468-5985 (9453)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.