Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.2%-1.5%?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 87¢ · $279 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$279.15
-$0.52
99.2¢ → 87¢
-12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $65.24 | $65.31 | +$0.07 | 33% 7-14 (21) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $59.43 | $51.99 | -$7.44 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $44.51 | $44.78 | +$0.27 | — 9-0 (9) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $29.64 | $29.85 | +$0.21 | 27% 940-2516 (3456) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $26.1 | -$3.72 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $26.01 | -$3.84 | 29% 886-2138 (3024) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.3 | $17.71 | +$16.41 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $17.4 | -$2.48 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
probability<$100Invested
$65.24
Value
$65.31
PnL
+$0.07
Record
33%
7-14 (21)
balthazar<$100Invested
$59.43
Value
$51.99
PnL
-$7.44
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$44.51
Value
$44.78
PnL
+$0.27
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$29.85
PnL
+$0.21
Record
27%
940-2516 (3456)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$26.1
PnL
-$3.72
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$26.01
PnL
-$3.84
Record
29%
886-2138 (3024)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$17.71
PnL
+$16.41
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$2.48
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.