Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.9%-1.2%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$227.24
$39.63
99.4¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.88 | $59.88 | +$0 | 40% 1463-2159 (3622) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $15.41 | $54.3 | +$38.89 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $42.87 | $43.21 | +$0.35 | — 9-0 (9) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.94 | +$0.24 | 29% 887-2138 (3025) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.96 | +$0 | 53% 5821-5182 (11003) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.78 | $19.94 | +$0.16 | 51% 4764-4566 (9330) |
Invested
$59.88
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1463-2159 (3622)
Invested
$15.41
Value
$54.3
PnL
+$38.89
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$42.87
Value
$43.21
PnL
+$0.35
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.24
Record
29%
887-2138 (3025)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5821-5182 (11003)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.16
Record
51%
4764-4566 (9330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.