Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.6%-0.9%?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 55¢ · $309 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$308.61
$128.06
75.2¢ → 54.8¢
-27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $27.79 | $136.17 | +$108.38 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $65.94 | $40.84 | -$25.1 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 23.4¢ | $10.53 | $36.5 | +$25.96 | — 9-0 (9) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $52.9 | $32.67 | -$20.23 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $11.95 | $25.23 | +$13.27 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $34.94 | $21.78 | -$13.16 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $89.17 | $9.16 | +$34.19 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.22 | $5.96 | +$4.74 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
probabilityCTRInvested
$27.79
Value
$136.17
PnL
+$108.38
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$65.94
Value
$40.84
PnL
-$25.1
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$36.5
PnL
+$25.96
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$52.9
Value
$32.67
PnL
-$20.23
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Invested
$11.95
Value
$25.23
PnL
+$13.27
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
Invested
$34.94
Value
$21.78
PnL
-$13.16
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.17
Value
$9.16
PnL
+$34.19
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$5.96
PnL
+$4.74
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.