Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.3%-0.6%?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 48¢ · $412 held · ends Nov 21
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$411.62
$283.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $27.79 | $258.72 | +$230.93 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.5¢ | $11.6 | $38.8 | +$27.2 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 18.4¢ | $13.78 | $36.38 | +$22.6 | 26% 118-337 (455) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.7¢ | $35.32 | $27.23 | +$12.62 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $34.01 | $20.5 | -$13.52 | — 9-0 (9) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $24.22 | $15 | -$9.22 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $1.22 | $11.32 | +$10.11 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $0.38 | $3.54 | +$3.16 | 37% 3468-5985 (9453) |
probabilityInvested
$27.79
Value
$258.72
PnL
+$230.93
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$38.8
PnL
+$27.2
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
Invested
$13.78
Value
$36.38
PnL
+$22.6
Record
26%
118-337 (455)
Invested
$35.32
Value
$27.23
PnL
+$12.62
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
Invested
$34.01
Value
$20.5
PnL
-$13.52
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$24.22
Value
$15
PnL
-$9.22
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$11.32
PnL
+$10.11
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$3.54
PnL
+$3.16
Record
37%
3468-5985 (9453)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.