Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$502.9

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 98.2¢

+58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,186

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No3 traders

Total Value$72.71

Total Shares4,040

Combined PnL-$835.72

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 59.4¢	$1.7K	$2.5K	+$793.96	50% 363-356 (719)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 83.8¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$184.14	46% 134-155 (289)
RA RadioCCOD	Yesavg 6.6¢	$15.54	$230.95	+$215.97	36% 105-187 (292)
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$6.77	$81.03	+$73.83	14% 9531-61028 (70559)
SH shiifooCTR	Noavg 22.7¢	$847.23	$71.37	-$775.86	47% 5211-5761 (10972)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$5.66	$70.45	+$64.79	62% 35949-22447 (58396)
LU LulaVaiPerder<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$15.52	$15.63	+$0.13	76% 342-108 (450)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.6	$6.48	+$5.8	43% 18713-24467 (43180)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Noavg 80.6¢	$50.38	$1.13	-$48.85	55% 1477-1199 (2676)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 93.7¢	$11.25	$0.22	-$11	50% 66257-66785 (133042)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$1,660.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$793.96

Record

50%

363-356 (719)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$1,067.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$184.14

Record

46%

134-155 (289)

RadioCCOD

Yes

Invested

$15.54

Value

$230.95

PnL

+$215.97

Record

36%

105-187 (292)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.77

Value

$81.03

PnL

+$73.83

Record

14%

9531-61028 (70559)

shiifooCTR

Invested

$847.23

Value

$71.37

PnL

-$775.86

Record

47%

5211-5761 (10972)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$70.45

PnL

+$64.79

Record

62%

35949-22447 (58396)

LulaVaiPerder<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.52

Value

$15.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

76%

342-108 (450)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$5.8

Record

43%

18713-24467 (43180)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Invested

$50.38

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$48.85

Record

55%

1477-1199 (2676)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$11

Record

50%

66257-66785 (133042)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

143h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.