Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Senate election by 5%-10%?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$60.84

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 77¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,294

Combined PnL+$129.57

Yes3 traders

Total Value$108.66

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$68.73

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 64.8¢	$311.35	$372.91	+$61.56	71% 7177-2916 (10093)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 62.8¢	$346.12	$306.94	+$14.08	54% 14-12 (26)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$603.97	$215.53	-$27.66	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.9¢	$100.75	$120.06	-$37.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33¢	$146.52	$95.48	+$10.31
SH shiifooARB<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$156.57	$197.78	+$41.21	59% 3768-2614 (6382)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.2¢	$114.88	$157.79	+$42.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.4¢	$41.69	$39.99	-$1.7
2B9S	Noavg 71¢	$151.83	$164.34	+$12.51	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$120.91	$118.7	-$0.06	14% 503-3033 (3536)
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$84.33	$93.18	+$8.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$34.38	$25.52	-$8.85
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 78¢	$67.08	$67.51	+$0.43	27% 531-1430 (1961)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$134.9	$65.67	-$69.23	45% 2849-3477 (6326)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 51.2¢	$40.5	$62.14	+$22.01	53% 29676-26572 (56248)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 68¢	$34.52	$39.85	+$5.33	49% 752-789 (1541)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 33¢	$9.9	$23.55	+$13.65	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
RayGuyCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$34	$21.5	-$12.5	84% 21-4 (25)
GohstCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8	$21.49	+$12.99	49% 758-787 (1545)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$311.35

Value

$372.91

PnL

+$61.56

Record

71%

7177-2916 (10093)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$346.12

Value

$306.94

PnL

+$14.08

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$603.97

Value

$215.53

PnL

-$27.66

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

No$100.7565.9¢-$37.97

Yes$146.5233¢+$10.31

shiifooARB<$100

Invested

$156.57

Value

$197.78

PnL

+$41.21

Record

59%

3768-2614 (6382)

Both legs:

No$114.8857.2¢+$42.9

Yes$41.6922.4¢-$1.7

2B9S

Invested

$151.83

Value

$164.34

PnL

+$12.51

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$120.91

Value

$118.7

PnL

-$0.06

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

Both legs:

No$84.3371¢+$8.79

Yes$34.3829¢-$8.85

lpgb<$100

Invested

$67.08

Value

$67.51

PnL

+$0.43

Record

27%

531-1430 (1961)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.9

Value

$65.67

PnL

-$69.23

Record

45%

2849-3477 (6326)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$62.14

PnL

+$22.01

Record

53%

29676-26572 (56248)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$34.52

Value

$39.85

PnL

+$5.33

Record

49%

752-789 (1541)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$23.55

PnL

+$13.65

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

RayGuyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

GohstCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$21.49

PnL

+$12.99

Record

49%

758-787 (1545)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.