Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$90.63
93.8¢ → 95.3¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifoo | Noavg 93.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$35.5 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
 balthazar | Noavg 93.4¢ | $225.18 | $227.23 | +$2.05 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $32.89 | $11.88 | +$121.9 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $9.2 | $11.4 | +$2.2 | 78% 285-79 (364) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $10.18 | $10 | -$0.01 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
Invested
$1,445.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$35.5
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
balthazarInvested
$225.18
Value
$227.23
PnL
+$2.05
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$32.89
Value
$11.88
PnL
+$121.9
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$2.2
Record
78%
285-79 (364)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.01
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.