Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-12 House election by 55%-60%?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 22¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$409.36
$51.66
20.9¢ → 22¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $276.78 | $256.04 | -$8.3 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.8¢ | $194.15 | $199.71 | +$5.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $66.56 | $56.33 | -$13.84 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $171.11 | $147.77 | +$51.66 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $5.54 | $5.54 | -$0 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.