Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-12 House election by 50%-55%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $403 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$403.16
$73.99
74.6¢ → 74.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 74.5¢ | $363.52 | $299.69 | +$20.59 | 36% 15176-27300 (42476) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $35.47 | $46.28 | +$34.61 | — 1-0 (1) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $12.39 | $31.29 | +$18.9 | 60% 3306-2215 (5521) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $14.9 | -$0.1 | 18% 522-2344 (2866) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $11.11 | $11 | -$0.01 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
Invested
$363.52
Value
$299.69
PnL
+$20.59
Record
36%
15176-27300 (42476)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$35.47
Value
$46.28
PnL
+$34.61
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$12.39
Value
$31.29
PnL
+$18.9
Record
60%
3306-2215 (5521)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15
Value
$14.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
18%
522-2344 (2866)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$11.11
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.01
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.