Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election by 80%-85%?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 31¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$93.78

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 30.5¢

-37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$245.12

Total Shares751

Combined PnL-$119.99

No4 traders

Total Value$186.29

Total Shares283

Combined PnL+$26.22

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$821.71	$493.46	+$79.19	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.6¢	$295.72	$312.18	-$30.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.7¢	$153.99	$181.28	+$109.88
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 48.1¢	$345.14	$229.45	-$115.69	— 6-7 (13)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$140.53	$137.25	-$2.02	15% 459-2699 (3158)
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$96.09	$89.21	-$6.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.3¢	$42.91	$48.04	+$4.88
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$65.85	$61.75	-$4.1	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$56.58	$58.5	+$1.92	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 38¢	$29.64	$53.04	+$23.4	45% 2784-3336 (6120)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$19.98	$15.67	-$4.31	56% 444-352 (796)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 40¢	$8	$13	+$5	53% 29191-26096 (55287)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$821.71

Value

$493.46

PnL

+$79.19

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$295.7261.6¢-$30.69

Yes$153.9929.7¢+$109.88

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$345.14

Value

$229.45

PnL

-$115.69

Record

—

6-7 (13)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$140.53

Value

$137.25

PnL

-$2.02

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Both legs:

No$96.0970¢-$6.9

Yes$42.9131.3¢+$4.88

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$65.85

Value

$61.75

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$56.58

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$1.92

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$29.64

Value

$53.04

PnL

+$23.4

Record

45%

2784-3336 (6120)

thanksforplayinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.98

Value

$15.67

PnL

-$4.31

Record

56%

444-352 (796)

balthazar<$100

Invested

Value

$13

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.4%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$208.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

309.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.