Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$63.88

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 81¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,602

Combined PnL+$376.6

Yes4 traders

Total Value$315.76

Total Shares1,662

Combined PnL-$312.72

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 58.1¢	$669.3	$932.64	+$274.62	55% 17-14 (31)
Haradwaith	Noavg 68.6¢	$91.76	$288.33	+$63.77	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Yesavg 44.3¢	$520.15	$222.9	-$297.25	66% 292-152 (444)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$38.41	$76.63	+$38.21	47% 4071-4625 (8696)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yes	$56.67	$56.67	+$29.56	67% 27537-13843 (41380)
ifyoulovemeCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$77	$34.02	-$42.97	55% 352-286 (638)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.1¢	$4.22	$2.17	-$2.05	16% 387-1970 (2357)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$669.3

Value

$932.64

PnL

+$274.62

Record

55%

17-14 (31)

Haradwaith

Invested

$91.76

Value

$288.33

PnL

+$63.77

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Yes

Invested

$520.15

Value

$222.9

PnL

-$297.25

Record

66%

292-152 (444)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$38.41

Value

$76.63

PnL

+$38.21

Record

47%

4071-4625 (8696)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.67

Value

$56.67

PnL

+$29.56

Record

67%

27537-13843 (41380)

ifyoulovemeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77

Value

$34.02

PnL

-$42.97

Record

55%

352-286 (638)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.22

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$2.05

Record

16%

387-1970 (2357)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

72h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.6%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.