Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$100.88

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 89¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,907

Combined PnL+$99.29

Yes1 trader

Total Value$197.41

Total Shares940

Combined PnL+$1.6

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	No	$582.53	$582.53	+$0	42% 5278-7215 (12493)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 76.8¢	$355.03	$457.38	-$8.53	71% 7031-2815 (9846)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 74.8¢	$733.48	$337.63	+$45.11	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 76.9¢	$250.07	$233.62	+$55.54	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
YoungAlphaGoatCTR	Yesavg 20.8¢	$195.81	$197.41	+$1.6	45% 401-494 (895)
Istaroth	Noavg 76.3¢	$305.21	$159.75	+$5.67	15% 435-2472 (2907)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$27.98	$29.7	+$1.72	49% 8636-9158 (17794)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$19.47	$19.8	+$0.33	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.03	$8.12	-$0.92	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$5.82	$6.18	+$0.36	53% 28804-25713 (54517)

Haradwaith

Invested

$582.53

Value

$582.53

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

5278-7215 (12493)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$355.03

Value

$457.38

PnL

-$8.53

Record

71%

7031-2815 (9846)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$733.48

Value

$337.63

PnL

+$45.11

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$250.07

Value

$233.62

PnL

+$55.54

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

YoungAlphaGoatCTR

Yes

Invested

$195.81

Value

$197.41

PnL

+$1.6

Record

45%

401-494 (895)

Istaroth

Invested

$305.21

Value

$159.75

PnL

+$5.67

Record

15%

435-2472 (2907)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.98

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$1.72

Record

49%

8636-9158 (17794)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$0.33

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.03

Value

$8.12

PnL

-$0.92

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.