Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 97¢ · $759 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$758.65

Combined PnL

-$303.1

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 96.8¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$736.62

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$148.78

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21.91

Total Shares3,136

Combined PnL-$451.88

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 74.4¢	$317.51	$425.27	+$107.76	45% 3009-3702 (6711)
Haradwaith	Noavg 79.9¢	$119.34	$283.33	+$33.02	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
thanksforplayin<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$20.21	$28.01	+$8	56% 719-567 (1286)
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$371.91	$15.24	-$343.11	43% 15-20 (35)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$179.07	$3.78	+$24.08	47% 4084-4642 (8726)
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$45.61	$1.96	-$42.54	36% 102-180 (282)
ifyoulovemeCTR<$100	Yesavg 58.5¢	$91.26	$0.94	-$90.32	55% 353-289 (642)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$317.51

Value

$425.27

PnL

+$107.76

Record

45%

3009-3702 (6711)

Haradwaith

Invested

$119.34

Value

$283.33

PnL

+$33.02

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

thanksforplayin<$100

Invested

$20.21

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$8

Record

56%

719-567 (1286)

0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR

Yes

Invested

$371.91

Value

$15.24

PnL

-$343.11

Record

43%

15-20 (35)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.07

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$24.08

Record

47%

4084-4642 (8726)

RadioCCODCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.61

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$42.54

Record

36%

102-180 (282)

ifyoulovemeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.26

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$90.32

Record

55%

353-289 (642)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.