Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 12% or more?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $756 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$756.01
-$327.96
76.4¢ → 99.4¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
88h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $318.16 | $425.06 | +$106.9 | 45% 3009-3702 (6711) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 79.9¢ | $119.34 | $283.19 | +$33.02 | 40% 6569-9849 (16418) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $20.21 | $28 | +$8 | 56% 719-567 (1286) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $371.91 | $16.51 | -$343.11 | 43% 15-20 (35) |
RA RadioCCODCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $45.61 | $2.12 | -$42.54 | 36% 102-180 (282) |
 ifyoulovemeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $91.26 | $1.01 | -$90.25 | 55% 353-289 (642) |
Invested
$318.16
Value
$425.06
PnL
+$106.9
Record
45%
3009-3702 (6711)
HaradwaithInvested
$119.34
Value
$283.19
PnL
+$33.02
Record
40%
6569-9849 (16418)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$20.21
Value
$28
PnL
+$8
Record
56%
719-567 (1286)
Invested
$371.91
Value
$16.51
PnL
-$343.11
Record
43%
15-20 (35)
Invested
$45.61
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$42.54
Record
36%
102-180 (282)
ifyoulovemeCTR<$100Invested
$91.26
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$90.25
Record
55%
353-289 (642)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.