Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-09 House election by 55%-60%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 59¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$148.29
$22.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $64.88 | $73.23 | +$22.08 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.5 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.66 | $16.26 | -$1.4 | 42% 143-199 (342) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.36 | $5 | +$0.64 | 60% 3300-2213 (5513) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $3.8 | +$1.6 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
Invested
$64.88
Value
$73.23
PnL
+$22.08
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$17.66
Value
$16.26
PnL
-$1.4
Record
42%
143-199 (342)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.64
Record
60%
3300-2213 (5513)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$1.6
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.