Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-09 House election by 50%-55%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 21¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$210.96
$19.68
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 16.9¢ | $146.03 | $127.2 | +$21.17 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $61.08 | $57.98 | -$0.85 | 22% 291-1025 (1316) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.26 | $15.65 | -$2.61 | 42% 143-199 (342) |
74 0x7495...7fcfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $7.74 | $9.02 | +$1.28 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $0.41 | $1.1 | +$0.69 | 60% 3300-2213 (5513) |
Invested
$146.03
Value
$127.2
PnL
+$21.17
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$61.08
Value
$57.98
PnL
-$0.85
Record
22%
291-1025 (1316)
Invested
$18.26
Value
$15.65
PnL
-$2.61
Record
42%
143-199 (342)
Invested
$7.74
Value
$9.02
PnL
+$1.28
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.69
Record
60%
3300-2213 (5513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.