Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-08 House election by 15%-20%?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 76¢ · $880 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$880
$68.87
73.9¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 72.8¢ | $501.96 | $351.53 | +$33.42 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 75.6¢ | $354.61 | $351.36 | -$2.52 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $98.64 | $85.18 | +$0.12 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $46.84 | $45.82 | -$1.02 | — 7-2 (9) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $17.12 | $25.65 | +$8.53 | 48% 3491-3826 (7317) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $7.63 | $19.13 | +$11.5 | 59% 3437-2346 (5783) |
 fkpa<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $81.87 | $0.85 | +$18.84 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$501.96
Value
$351.53
PnL
+$33.42
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
IstarothInvested
$354.61
Value
$351.36
PnL
-$2.52
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
2B9S<$100Invested
$98.64
Value
$85.18
PnL
+$0.12
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$46.84
Value
$45.82
PnL
-$1.02
Record
—
7-2 (9)
Invested
$17.12
Value
$25.65
PnL
+$8.53
Record
48%
3491-3826 (7317)
Invested
$7.63
Value
$19.13
PnL
+$11.5
Record
59%
3437-2346 (5783)
fkpa<$100Invested
$81.87
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$18.84
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.