Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 9%-12%?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $173 held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$173.25

Combined PnL

-$0.78

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 92.7¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$172.35

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$1.86

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.89

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$2.64

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 94.3¢	$111.72	$113.44	+$1.72	45% 1814-2260 (4074)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$51.84	$52.19	+$0.36	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50AB<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$6.94	$6.72	-$0.21	58% 100-71 (171)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$3.53	$0.89	-$2.64	18% 3780-17066 (20846)

123987456

Invested

$111.72

Value

$113.44

PnL

+$1.72

Record

45%

1814-2260 (4074)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$51.84

Value

$52.19

PnL

+$0.36

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50AB<$100

Invested

$6.94

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

100-71 (171)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.53

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$2.64

Record

18%

3780-17066 (20846)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.