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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 6%-9%?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
SIGNAL
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$65.69
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes15%
No85%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $108.2 | $65.69 | +$17.69 | 36% 16052-28068 (44120) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 10¢ | $28.25 | $42.77 | +$38.62 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.8¢ | $22.9 | $22.92 | -$20.93 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance16.6%
15.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$500.95
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
601.0
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x97c3e28f...f542bd
Slug
will-the-democratic-party-candidate-win-the-2026-ia-02-house-election-by-6-9