Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 12% or more?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 4

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$162.64

Combined PnL

$32.01

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 92¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$87.93

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$34.91

Yes2 traders

Total Value$74.71

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$66.92

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
12 123987456	Noavg 99.8¢	$115.9	$82.92	-$32.98	45% 1814-2260 (4074)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$5.92	$50.34	+$44.41	18% 3780-17066 (20846)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.86	$24.37	+$22.51	35% 14744-26906 (41650)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50AB<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.94	$5.01	-$1.93	58% 100-71 (171)

123987456

Invested

$115.9

Value

$82.92

PnL

-$32.98

Record

45%

1814-2260 (4074)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.92

Value

$50.34

PnL

+$44.41

Record

18%

3780-17066 (20846)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$22.51

Record

35%

14744-26906 (41650)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50AB<$100

Invested

$6.94

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$1.93

Record

58%

100-71 (171)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.2%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.