Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor election?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$2.1K
$204.96
Research grade
NeutralYes at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PI pieped | Yesavg 72.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.0K | +$257.07 | 42% 67-92 (159) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 41.8¢ | $333.64 | $32.54 | -$52.11 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.