Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-20 House election by 55%-60%?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 95¢ · $536 held · ended Nov 4

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$536.14

Combined PnL

$202.71

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 95.3¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$480.24

Total Shares481

Combined PnL+$4.83

Yes1 trader

Total Value$55.9

Total Shares423

Combined PnL+$197.88

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 84.3¢	$348.63	$235.82	-$10.88	14% 503-3047 (3550)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 86¢	$78.26	$76.16	+$3.77	18% 4421-20724 (25145)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$77.98	$59.71	+$6.65	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 13.7¢	$133.13	$55.9	+$197.88	35% 18725-34748 (53473)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$34.6	$39.82	+$5.22	73% 12955-4895 (17850)
HolyMoses7<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$38.92	$38.87	-$0.05	54% 1670-1412 (3082)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$29.75	$29.87	+$0.11	59% 3791-2625 (6416)

Istaroth

Invested

$348.63

Value

$235.82

PnL

-$10.88

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$78.26

Value

$76.16

PnL

+$3.77

Record

18%

4421-20724 (25145)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$77.98

Value

$59.71

PnL

+$6.65

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.13

Value

$55.9

PnL

+$197.88

Record

35%

18725-34748 (53473)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$34.6

Value

$39.82

PnL

+$5.22

Record

73%

12955-4895 (17850)

HolyMoses7<$100

Invested

$38.92

Value

$38.87

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

1670-1412 (3082)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$0.11

Record

59%

3791-2625 (6416)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.