Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-13 House election by 3%-6%?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$133.06

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 99.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,162

Combined PnL+$113.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.1

Total Shares927

Combined PnL+$19.98

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 85.6¢	$60.62	$725.74	+$87.3	45% 2525-3059 (5584)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 77.5¢	$83.48	$107.12	+$5.33	53% 8051-7154 (15205)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97¢	$93.05	$95.43	+$2.38	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95¢	$71.23	$74.59	+$3.36	62% 14630-9158 (23788)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$69.53	$69.62	+$0.08	49% 8636-9158 (17794)
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$32.31	$32.96	+$0.65	53% 242-215 (457)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 95¢	$28.5	$29.84	+$1.34	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	No	$11.71	$19.89	+$12.66	25% 1654-5034 (6688)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$128	$4.45	-$117.49	41% 82-116 (198)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$44.02	$0.65	+$137.47	35% 17800-33165 (50965)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$60.62

Value

$725.74

PnL

+$87.3

Record

45%

2525-3059 (5584)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$83.48

Value

$107.12

PnL

+$5.33

Record

53%

8051-7154 (15205)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$93.05

Value

$95.43

PnL

+$2.38

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$71.23

Value

$74.59

PnL

+$3.36

Record

62%

14630-9158 (23788)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$69.53

Value

$69.62

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

8636-9158 (17794)

Dimpled-Foal<$100

Invested

$32.31

Value

$32.96

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

242-215 (457)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$1.34

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$12.66

Record

25%

1654-5034 (6688)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$128

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$117.49

Record

41%

82-116 (198)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.02

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$137.47

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

101h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.