Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-04 House election by 30%-35%?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $488 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$488
-$47.87
68.3¢ → 80.5¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 64.6¢ | $375.36 | $271.43 | +$64.24 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 77.5¢ | $426.91 | $102.5 | -$120.63 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $75.56 | $74.33 | -$1.24 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
 fkpa<$100 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $21.09 | $23.54 | +$2.45 | — 1-0 (1) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $15.7 | +$7.3 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
Invested
$375.36
Value
$271.43
PnL
+$64.24
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
IstarothInvested
$426.91
Value
$102.5
PnL
-$120.63
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
2B9S<$100Invested
$75.56
Value
$74.33
PnL
-$1.24
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
fkpa<$100Invested
$21.09
Value
$23.54
PnL
+$2.45
Record
—
1-0 (1)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$7.3
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.