Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 25¢ · $476 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$475.74
$24.59
23.1¢ → 24.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $305.36 | $168.45 | -$26.85 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 80¢ | $136.1 | $127.61 | -$31.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $36.16 | $40.83 | +$4.23 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $183.97 | $157.79 | -$26.18 | 36% 15301-27370 (42671) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $81.61 | $123.73 | +$44.69 | — 1-0 (1) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $15.03 | $20.87 | +$5.98 | 62% 2185-1326 (3511) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $4.9 | +$0.1 | 18% 526-2353 (2879) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$305.36
Value
$168.45
PnL
-$26.85
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$183.97
Value
$157.79
PnL
-$26.18
Record
36%
15301-27370 (42671)
fkpaCTRInvested
$81.61
Value
$123.73
PnL
+$44.69
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$15.03
Value
$20.87
PnL
+$5.98
Record
62%
2185-1326 (3511)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
18%
526-2353 (2879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.